We are facing a conflict of headline-charged volatility against the seasonal assumptions of fading liquidity. The level of expected activity will play a critical role in what kind of moves we should expect from the key players in the FX, indices and commodity market. Can the Dow sustain its bounce if volatility remains high? Will gold continue its run to six year highs if it doesn’t?

Oil has been quite weak and while a bounce may continue in the very near-term the path of least resistance is likely to remain lower.

Is the US Dollar reversal from key uptrend resistance just a pullback or the start of something more ominous? Here are the levels that matter on the DXY weekly chart.

The Australian Dollar is at risk to the US Dollar as AUD/USD upside progress lacks technical confirmation. The Canadian Dollar may gain as AUD/CAD faces near-term bearish signals.

There is good reason to doubt many of the tentative trends developing across the financial system in ‘risk’ assets or Dollar pairs as conviction is uneven. But what about Gold trading at multi-year highs?